The level of employment

The level of employment in the economy (excluding agriculture) is one of the most important information in the report. This is the
basic information that is often called the most important factor in determining the state of the economy. This is due to, inter alia, the
fact that it is determined on the basis of very large amounts of data and allows for many years on the precise determination of the
economic cycle by keeping the historical statistics. Economists have adopted the value of 150 000 new jobs as meaning that the
economy is capable of growth. The increase in new jobs for 150 000 or more means of growth and improvement of employees, and
any value below indicates a weak labor market situations.
Employment data are called pointer while (coincident indicator). This ratio varies directly and simultaneously with the economic
cycles, while faithfully describes the current state of the economy.
Each of these in the first part of the paper surveys, the overall number of employed Americans. Both surveys calculate the number
of different methods. The employment level is much broader and more accurate indicator. While it is true it should be noted that
this report does not take into account the data from households, the self-employed and agriculture. Same report on the situation of
households is less accurate and is conducted on the basis of a smaller number of surveys.
Data on the unemployment rate derived from the report on the situation of households are considered an indicator of delayed
(lagging indicator), so an index that changes when the economy has already entered into a trend or condition. This follows simply
from the fact that people lose work or are out of work when the economy already is in not the best condition.
A major investor in the forex will be closely monitoring report data about the level of employment in order to identify trends in
the distribution of income, wage growth and unemployment statistics, since all these factors can have a significant impact on
the changing value of currencies in the forex. In a situation where there is employment growth, wage growth will also increase
performance indicators such as consumption, retail sales, as in the portfolios of people will just want more money.For analysts, this
is a signal that the dollar will gain in value against other currencies, which is in hand.

The importance of the report to investors

Report on the level of employment is a compilation of multi-layer, which covers many areas and contains a lot of data, and therefore
very important to skillfully identify critical data contained therein.

Report on the level of employment (Employee Situation Report)

Date of publication:
The first Friday of the month
Time of announcement:
8:30 am Eastern Standard Time
For the period:
Previous month
Drawing up the institution:
Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS)
The latest report:

http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Report on the level of employment (Employment Situation Report), also called the Labor Report, is a very broad indicator which is
presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The report consists of two separate parts. The first one is called.”Establishment
survey” questionnaire, which contains data from more than 400 000 businesses from across the country. The report is considered
the most accurate and reliable coverage in the U.S., as illustrated by the situation of almost 30% of employees (not including
farmers – our farmers) from all over the country and include detailed statistics such as levels of withdrawals from the whole economy
(excluding agriculture), the number of hours worked; hourly wage level. The report is huge, both by volume and in terms of how the
information contained therein. It presents the statistics of over 500 branches of the economy and thousands of cities.
The second part is a survey called “household survey”. It gathers statistics from more than 60 000 households and presents a
statistical picture of the total number of Americans without a job, which allows us to establish a national unemployment rate. Data
are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics.Thanks to the cooperation of these two agents produced a
document enriched with more robust demographic data which gives it an even wider perspective.
Both surveys show changes from the previous month, as well as annual changes.This statistic is sometimes so very fluent reading
such a statement for his behavior (trend) is very helpful.

Almighty U.S. dollar

In 1913, under the Federal Reserve Act (Federal Reserve Act) established the Federal Reserve System (usually known under the
abbreviated name of the Fed), which acts as the central bank for the United States. The Fed is managed by the President and
the supervisory board, and most important a branch (the body) called the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). In the
Polish political and economic situation, the FOMC is the equivalent of the Monetary Policy Council. FOMC supervises open markets
operations, also deals with fiscal policy – primarily interest rates.
FOMC is composed of five of the 12 currently seated on chairs of governors of the Federal Reserve Banks, and 7 members of the
Federal Reserve. Permanent representative on the committee have the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.Despite the fact that
only 12 members of the committee has the right to vote, the representatives do not have voting rights (including the additional Fed
Bank presidents) are encouraged to participate in the discussions and voice their opinions about the current economic situation and
present their ideas. Committee Meetings are held eight times a year.
Also often called simply “green”, the U.S. dollar (USD) is the currency of a country with one of the largest economies in the
world – the United States of America (USA).Like any other currency in the world, the U.S. dollar is closely linked with many other
fundamental economic factors, involving a gross domestic product, production volume, reports on the level of unemployment. An
equally important factor in the dollar is the central bank and any of his statements regarding the level of interest rates. U.S. dollar is
the reference point in the forex, it is rotated along with every other major world currencies, and most seem to be the statement of the
euro, Japanese yen and British pound.
Forex is influenced by various economic factors, but one of the most important, so that a decisive impact on the value of the
currency of a country is the level of unemployment. What the report is therefore most important for the dollar?

U.S. dollar – the basic currency of the investment

As we have learned from many previous articles, forex is one of the most global markets in the world. One of the biggest pulses
having an impact on forex are economies of those countries whose currency we trade. Exploring in depth the history and processes,
which are often in the forex currency trading, we may learn why some investors are turning certain currency pairs and how we can
be successful doing exactly the same. The most popular currency in the forex is the U.S. dollar. In this article I will describe the
dollar and all the most important factors that affect its value in the forex.
U.S. dollar (with English U. S. Dollar – USD)

What is a bear market?

This bear market slump in stock market terminology (from the French baisse, commonly just that: a bear market). This term refers
to long-term decline in the share price of securities, prices of goods listed on the stock exchange or the exchange rate on the
international currency market. The opposite of bear market – bear market is a bull – a bull market.

Indicator 4: A tool used to determine the best moment of profitable sales

The last indicator that is useful for any investor, is a tool that will help determine when to sell a pair of currencies for a profit. Here
we have many instruments to choose from. One of them may be a three-day RSI indicator. An investor who has an open position
long term, may consider selling, and cashed it at a profit when the three-day RSI indicator rises to high levels, such as 80 or more.
On the other hand, an investor holding a short position, you should consider selling and pick up a profit in a situation where a threeday
RSI drops to a level 20 or lower.
Another tool for determining the time of sale is a popular indicator known as the limit of Bollinger. This tool adds and subtracts the
standard deviation of price changes over time than the average sales price for the same period of time in order to establish limits for
investments.
Figure 5 shows the price pair euro / yen with 20-days Bollinger borders imposed daily price data for this pair. An investor holding a
long position should consider closing the position and obtain a profit when the price reaches the upper limit, and the investor holding
a short position should consider selling when the price reaches the lower limit.
Figure 5: Euro / yen with the limits of Bollinger
Learning the many indicators that occur in the forex can develop over time corresponding to their own style of investing strategies
that will allow you to sell pairs of currencies for a profit. You’ll know when to sell the currency, in the case of reversing the trend, do
not suffer too much loss

Indicator 3: A tool to assess the position of currency pairs – overbought / oversold

General opinion is that investors should trade in line with the direction of the trend, it remains only to decide whether to start an
investment immediately after the trend direction is known, or when you are slowing trend. If you decide to buy the currency at once,
you can do it as soon as the direction of the trend will be understood, however, if you decide to wait for the slowdown in long-term
trend, you can reckon with a lower risk of such investment. In this respect, is the rate overbought / oversold.
From the perspective of investors, the most useful in this situation is a three-day indicator RSI (relative strength index trend). This
indicator calculates the total amount of days on which the price went up and down within a specified period of time and can take
values from 0 to 100 If the price in a given period is an indicator only firmer will be worth 100, if the price was falling all the time, this
indicator will accept a value close to zero. A score of 50 is read as neutral.
Figure 4 presents a three-day RSI for money pair euro / yen. Simply put, the investor who wants to make a purchase at the time
of slowdown, you should consider buying a long period when the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day and three-day RSI
index falls below a certain level of liberation, such as 20, which will mean, that the price has entered oversold position. Conversely,
investors should consider buying a short period if the average 50-day average is below the 200-day RSI and the ratio rises above a
certain level, such as 80, which means that the price has entered the overbought position. Each investor will consider that a different
level of RSI is adequate. My proposal is an example, but very balanced

Indicator 2: Tool confirming the trend

The previously mentioned trend tracking tool tells us whether the main trend for the pair is rising, or is directed downward. To what
extent, however, this indicator is reliable? As already mentioned previously, the trend tracking tool is susceptible to price spikes.
So it would be useful tool that would help determine whether a trend tracking indicator is correct, or incorrect. For this purpose it is
necessary to use a tool to confirm the trend. Like the trend tracking tool, a tool supporting the trend should not be used to determine
the signal to buy or sell. We use them in order to check whether the two instruments show the same trends.
In short, if both tools are compatible, the investor with a greater degree of certainty to open a long position for a given currency pair.
Similarly, if the tools do not agree, the investor should look for the best moment to sell in the short term given currency pair.
One of the most popular and useful tools to confirm trend is the MACD – (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) – indicator
constructed by the analyst Gerard Appel in the 60s The twentieth century. This indicator examines the convergence and divergence,
and thus the differences between the two moving averages. The difference is then smoothed and compared with its own moving
average. This may sound very complicated, but should dispel such doubts. When the smoothed average of the MACD is above its
own moving average, the histogram at the bottom of the graph 3 is positive and rising trend is confirmed.

Indicator 1: A tool for tracking trends

It is possible, of course, make money trading against the trend, but for many investors a lot easier to approach, which determines
the main direction of the trend and trying to invest in accordance with his direction. Here its important role played by the tool to track
the trend. Many people have misunderstood the role of this tool and try to use them as a standalone system for trading. Of course
they can be used for this purpose, but the true role of this tool is to help in deciding whether to enter a long position or short. So let’s
examine one of the simplest methods of monitoring the trend – the intersection of the moving average (moving average crossover),
the level of security prices and the rate of currency pairs on the graph.
The simplest moving average shows the average closing price items (sales) over a certain amount of days. The easiest way would
be to explain it in two easy examples – one short and one long term.
On the chart reproduced below (Figure 1) indicated the intersection of two moving averages – one for 50 days and another for 200
days for a pair of euro / yen.According to theory, the trend is favorable if the moving average of 50 days is above the average of 200
days, in turn, the trend is negative in a situation where an average of 50 days is below the average of 200 days. As the chart shows
a combination of average for the most part very well set a trend. Of course, whether we compare the two averages will appear
situations in which the security price will be guided in one direction, and after a while will suddenly soar in the opposite direction.
Figure 1: Diagram for a couple of euro / yen with an average 50-day and 200-day
Figure 2 shows a different combination – 10 daily and 30-day average. The advantage of adopting such a combination is its faster
response to changing prices in the trend of Figure 2: The euro / yen with 10-day and 30-day average
Many investors will trust that any given combination is reliable, but the truth is that there is no single best combination. Each investor
will build on the greatest benefits of using such a combination that best corresponds to the period, which includes your transactions.
These indicators allow the assessment so that the trend indicates that you must enter a long position, or to trade on short positions.
There should not rely on this indicator in order to decide to buy or sell.